The Event ontology is a vocabulary for describing uncertain Events, their outcomes and their dependencies. Furthermore, the vocabulary allows to describe Predictions and Realizations. A Prediction is a belief on the Event outcomes, namely (conditional) probabilities for those outcomes. A Realization is a possible outcome for a set of Events and is associated with a probability that all those outcomes happen. A Realization can take into account stated outcomes of dependent events.
The following concepts are formalized: - an **Event** is something that happens and that can have different outcomes - an **Outcome** is an outcome that a given Event can take - a **dependency** between 2 Events states that the probabilities of the dependent Event are impacted by the Outcomes of the other Event - a **Prediction** is a belief over the outcomes of a set of Events - an **EventPredicted** is a probability for an event outcome, possibly conditionnaly to other event outcomes - an **PredictionRealization** receives a set (possibly empty) of stated Outcomes for the Prediction events and provides all the possible Realizations of the non-stated Events - an **EventRealization** is a combination of EventOutcomes, with the probability that all these outcomes happen; it is associated to - an outcome of an event - a precedent EventRealization, with dependent event outcomes A Prediction is actually a Bayesian network. An Outcome is a column in a Bayesian table/node of a Bayesian network. An EventPredicted is a cell in a Bayesian table/node. For a given Prediction, the sets of Realizations with their corresponding probabilities can be derived. ```mermaid classDiagram class Event Event --> "1" Event: dependency class Outcome { outcomeValue: real } Event o--> Outcome class Prediction:::top Prediction o--> EventPredicted class EventPredicted:::pred { probability: real } class Prediction:::pred Prediction o--> PredictionRealization class PredictionRealization:::rea PredictionRealization --> "0..*" Outcome: statedOutcome PredictionRealization o--> EventRealization class EventRealization:::rea { probability: real } EventRealization --> Outcome: eventOutcome EventRealization --> "1" EventRealization : precedent EventPredicted --> "1" Outcome: predictedOutcome EventPredicted --> "*" Outcome: dependencyOutcome classDef default fill:#f96,color:black classDef pred fill:#e9edc9,color:black classDef rea fill:#e1c8ea,color:black ```
The Event ontology
An ontology of Events, allowing to associate probabilities to the Event outcomes
An Event is something that happens and can have different outcomes. Those outcomes are uncertain, and can be associated with probabilities. Examples of Events are: - the demand of a given product to a given organization - the price of a given product in a given market - the availability of a given machine in a given time period Events can depend on each other. For example the price of product can depend on the demand for that product. Outcomes of Events are associated with probabilities. These probabilities can be conditional to outcomes of Events this Event depends on.
An event impacting the subject event (an Edge in the Bayesian network); the subject Event depends on the object Event.
The subject event is not dependent on the object event. This is the complement of the extension of event:eventDependenty in a given context
A event realization of the Events in the subject list.
A sublist of predictionSortedEventsAll, from some arbitrary element to the end (derived)
The list of events in the Prediction, sorted from most dependent to less dependent. Used as topological order for the derivations (derived)
A sublist of predictionAllEvents, from an arbitrary element to the end (least dependent event)(derived)
The complete list of events (stated or predicted) in the Realization, sorted according to the dependencies (derived)
The stated events for this Realization(derived)
Event Outcomes assumed to have happened in the context of this realization (input)
The probability that all the outcomes in the Event Realization happen
The actual value outcome
OutcomeValue
An uncertain event impacting the production, with different possible outcomes; a prowl:Node and a a prowl:PR-OWL table
Event
The outcome of an event with a probability, possibly conditionnally to other event outcomes (a cell of a Bayesian table); a prowl:ProbabilityAssignment (input)
An event realization specifies an outcome for an event and all its dependencies, it is associated with the probability that all these outcomes happen (or the probability that this outcome happens conditonnaly to all dependent events)
A list of Events (possibly sorted from most dependent to least dependent)
An outcome of an event (a column of a Bayesian table)
Outcome
A prediction of a set of Events, possibly provided by the Impact Prediction Tool; a Prediction i a belief on uncertain events (Events), namely their (conditional) probabilities
Prediction
A Realization for a Prediction. Provides the set of all possible Realizations of the Prediction Events assuming a number of Events (possibly none) have a stated outcome
A list of Events with associated EventRealization's, for which event realizations will be derived.
An Event whose outcomes are values (quantities)
A value (quantity) outcome of an event
The realized outcome of the subject Realization
The Realization of the precedent event, to be used with the subject Realization